Australia's 2025-26 State Nomination Squeeze: Where Filipinos Should Apply

If your plan for Australian permanent residency runs through state nomination — the 190 or the 491 — then 2025-26 changed the game. The number of nomination places states were actually given fell sharply, and the pool of opportunities you are competing for is smaller than it has been in years. For a Filipino nurse, teacher, engineer, IT worker or tradesperson, that means the old strategy of "apply everywhere and hope" no longer works.

This guide gives you the honest numbers: how big the squeeze really is, exactly how many places each state received, and — most usefully — which states are still inviting the occupations Filipinos most commonly hold. The goal is simple: help you aim at the states where your job actually has room, instead of wasting months on a list that is already full.

The 20,350 reality vs the 33,000 plan (~38% shortfall)

For 2025-26, the Australian Government's planning level for state and territory nomination was 33,000 places — split roughly between the 190 (state-nominated PR) and the 491 (regional provisional). That headline number is what most agents and applicants planned around. The reality came in much lower.

Home Affairs published actual allocations of just 20,350 places: 12,850 for the 190 and 7,500 for the 491. That is roughly a 38% shortfall against the planning figure — around 12,650 fewer nomination opportunities than the top-line number suggested. In plain terms, the funnel into state-nominated PR narrowed substantially in a single year.

Why does this matter so much for Filipinos? State nomination is the path that gives points-tested applicants their crucial extra points — +5 for the 190, +15 for the 491. When the supply of those nominations shrinks, states get pickier: they tighten occupation lists, raise their own internal thresholds, and close streams faster once a quota fills. The same score that would have earned a nomination in a roomier year can now sit unanswered. The response is not panic — it is precision. You need to know where your specific occupation still has room.

State-by-state allocation table

Here is how the 20,350 places were distributed across the eight states and territories for 2025-26. Use it to see at a glance where the larger pools sit — though remember a big allocation only helps you if your occupation is on that state's open list.

State / Territory	2025-26 nomination places
New South Wales (NSW)	3,600
Victoria (VIC)	3,400
Western Australia (WA)	3,400
Queensland (QLD)	2,600
South Australia (SA)	2,250
Tasmania (TAS)	1,850
Northern Territory (NT)	1,650
Australian Capital Territory (ACT)	1,600
Total	20,350 (12,850 × 190 + 7,500 × 491)

NSW, Victoria and Western Australia hold the three largest pools, but raw size can mislead. A smaller state like Tasmania, the Northern Territory or the ACT can be a stronger bet if it actively invites your occupation and the larger states do not — because demand in the big-three is also the highest. The smart question is never "which state has the most places?" but "which state with open places actually wants my job?"

Matching Filipino occupations to states (health, education, ICT, trades)

The occupations Filipinos most reliably succeed with in state nomination cluster in a few fields: health (especially Registered Nurses), education (primary and secondary teachers), engineering (civil and software engineers), ICT, and selected construction trades. These are the occupations states invite most consistently, which is exactly why they remain the most realistic targets in a tight year.

Broadly, NSW, Victoria and Western Australia prioritise health, education and ICT, and reserve many trade pathways for their regional areas. Queensland leans heavily into construction and healthcare, partly driven by infrastructure demand ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. That makes Queensland worth a close look for Filipino tradies and nurses, while a Filipina teacher or software engineer may find NSW, Victoria or WA a better fit — provided the relevant occupation list is open when you apply.

One important caution: every state runs its own occupation list, its own eligibility criteria and its own opening and closing dates, and these change through the year. The table above tells you where the places are; only each state's live nomination page tells you whether your occupation is currently being invited there. Always confirm against the official state list before you commit time or money. If you are still deciding between the 189, 190 and 491 in the first place, our companion guide on choosing the right skilled visa walks through the trade-offs.

Why timing matters in a smaller pool

In a year with 33,000 places, a few weeks' delay rarely mattered. In a year with 20,350, timing can decide your outcome. Because states close streams once their quota for an occupation fills, the same nomination you would have won in month two can be unavailable by month six. The shrinking pool turns state nomination from a patient game into a responsive one.

Practically, that means three things. First, have your skills assessment and English results ready before a state opens, not after — you cannot move quickly if your evidence is still in progress. Second, monitor the states that match your occupation continuously, because some states have received supplementary allocations in past cycles and open or close streams mid-year. Third, do not bank everything on a single state; if your occupation is invited in more than one, prepare so you can act in whichever opens first.

None of this is a promise about processing or outcomes — nomination is decided by each state and the visa itself by the Australian Department of Home Affairs. But preparation is the one variable fully within your control, and in a tight pool it is often the difference between an invitation and a missed window.

Regional vs metro trade-offs

The 20,350 figure hides a strategic choice: 12,850 of those places are for the 190 (metro-eligible state nomination, immediate PR) and 7,500 are for the 491 (regional, provisional). Many Filipinos instinctively chase the 190 because it grants permanent residency on grant. But in a squeezed year, the 491 deserves a serious second look.

The 491 adds +15 points to your EOI — three times the 190's +5 — which can lift a borderline score into invitation range. It is a 5-year provisional visa that requires you to live and work in a designated regional area (essentially everywhere except Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane). After at least 3 years of regional living and working, and meeting a minimum taxable income requirement, you can apply for the permanent Subclass 191. So the regional route is not a dead end — it is a defined, three-year runway to the same PR.

The honest trade-off is lifestyle: smaller cities, sometimes fewer established Filipino communities nearby, and a commitment to stay regional. Against that, regional streams often have more room relative to demand than the headline metro pools, plus that decisive point boost. For a Filipino family whose points fall just short for the 190, the 491-to-191 pathway is frequently the most achievable plan — not the consolation prize. Weigh it on its merits, not just on which visa says "permanent" on day one.